Newsletter summary
High volatility of CNF price of MeidouRedchippokerAffected by the production reduction in Brazil; domestic soybean meal prices are still optimistic in the medium to long term, but loose expectations in the new season limit the space above. Risk factors include US bean weather, Brazilian port capacity and domestic customs clearance policy.
Text of news flash
[American bean price fluctuations the domestic soybean meal market follows the outer disk] affected by the production cut in Brazil, the price of American bean rebounded to more than 1200 cents last week. However, according to the latest USDA report, soybean supply is expected to be loose in 2024 to 25, which limits the room for soybean to rebound in the future. In addition, at present, the sowing progress of American beans is good, but it has not yet started weather hype, and the space for rising water in the weather is relatively limited. Soybean prices are expected to show high volatility, and the market is waiting for the further impact of the growth of American beans and precipitation in the producing areas. The fundamentals of the domestic soybean meal market have not changed, and the overall fluctuation is consistent with the trend of the outer soybean price. Under the bearish expectations of the USDA report, the price of soybean meal fell with the outer plate of soybeans. It is worth noting that the decline in the capacity of Brazilian ports is expected to affect the arrival of soybeans in China in the third quarter. At the same time, the domestic customs clearance policy may also affect the market. In spite of this, the loose expectation of the new season of Meidou limits the upper space of soybean meal, and the price of soybean meal is still on the long-term side. Risk factors that the market needs to pay close attention to in the future include the weather of American beans, the capacity of Brazilian ports and domestic customs clearance policies. All these factors may have an impact on the prices of soybeans and soybean meal. Investors should remain vigilant and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.
