Chinanews.com, May 17. Recently, a number of economic data were released in April, showing a trend of good expansion. Specifically, CPI has maintained positive year-on-year growth for three consecutive months, import and export data growth has changed from negative to positive, and PMI has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months.
Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchange and former secretary-general of the academic Commission of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out in an interview with Chinanews.com that the leading indicators and aggregate indicators of the economic data in April reflect the transformation of the economy for the better.
The National Bureau of Statistics released national CPI and PPI data for April 2024 on the 11th. Data show that CPI rose 0% in April from a year earlier.Mostechfreespins.3%, an increase of 0% over the previous month.MostechfreespinsCPI has maintained positive year-on-year growth for three consecutive months up to April.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank (600016), believes that April CPI showed a strong consumption of holiday-related services, mainly reflected in tourism, air tickets, hotel accommodation and so on.
From a policy point of view, recently, local governments have promoted consumption by issuing consumption coupons, "trading old for new", price reduction and promotion.
China Galaxy Securities Research Institute pointed out that the category of household appliances furniture is obviously promoted by the "trade-in" policy. During the May Day holiday, more than 400 brands participated in the trade-in. Cultural travel in many places can reduce tickets to scenic spots and promote cultural tourism consumption through preferential policies.
In addition, the import and export figures for April were also quite bright. Data show that in April, China's imports and exports totaled 3.64 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 8 percent from negative to positive. In the first four months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports of goods was 13.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.7 percent over the same period last year.
Wen Bin pointed out that imports and exports in April continued the recovery since the beginning of the year. The export performance is particularly outstanding, with positive growth still recorded in the same period last year (7.1%), and the absolute scale reached an all-time high in the same period.MostechfreespinsImports are better than seasonal, and the scale is the third highest in history, second only to 2021 and 2022.
Li Chao, chief economist of Zhejiang Securities, believes that from 2020 to 2023, thanks to China's strong advantage on the supply side, China's export growth continues to exceed expectations, and global economic growth will face multiple challenges in the future. geopolitics, ideological conflicts, trade protectionism and other factors such as the impact on the global supply chain, inflation and other factors, in this context, China's supply advantage will still be an important support for export resilience. Looking forward to the follow-up in 2024, with the gradual opening of the overseas replenishment cycle in the short term, we will benefit from the "performance-to-price dividend" driven by China's supply advantages in the medium term, and will continue to be optimistic about future exports.
On the production side, China's manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range for two consecutive months in April. Data show that manufacturing PMI was 50.4% in April, and production continued to expand.
Zheng Jiawei, an analyst at Yongxing Securities, believes that with the gradual development of policies such as stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic demand, especially the landing of policies such as "large-scale equipment renewal" and "trade-in for new consumer goods", the potential of market demand may be gradually released. it forms a good support for the current manufacturing activity.
Throughout the April economy, Li Chao believes that in April 2024, the fundamentals continue to repair the trend, supply-side repair is faster, the core is that the effect of stable industrial growth policy is prominent, especially the obvious expansion of the production side of the top ten key industries. In the case of the stabilization of the endogenous forces in the market and the policy of stabilizing growth, the economy as a whole is in the process of returning to the potential growth center, the manufacturing PMI has remained in the expansion range for two months in a row, the sustainability of the economic recovery is good, and the recovery on the supply side is faster than that on the demand side.
Zhang Yansheng told Chinanews.com that from the Central Economic work Conference, this year's two sessions and the Politburo meeting in April, we can see that both fiscal policy and monetary policy this year, have issued a series of problem-solving-oriented policies.
What is a package of policiesMostechfreespins? Zhang Yansheng explained that this package of policies is characterized by solving the problem of insufficient effective demand in the short term, stop-loss stabilization and structural reforms in the market for bulk consumer goods such as structural adjustment and real estate in the medium term, and solve some institutional and obstacle problems faced by high-quality development in the long term.
It is worth mentioning that in the context of this package of policies, the Ministry of Finance recently issued relevant arrangements for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and multi-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will enter the issuance stage in May and June.
Zhang Yansheng believes that with the gradual progress of the package of policies, the target of about 5% of China's economy in 2024 can be expected to be achieved.
"it can be expected that after four years of structural adjustment, it will bring a new atmosphere of development to China's economy after 2028." Zhang Yansheng thinks.