Source: Zhonglian Steel United Iron and Steel Network
I. Seamless pipe
1. Price: the market price of seamless pipe in the first half of May is adjusted in a narrow range. As of May 14, 20-108-4Crashbandicootdigginit.5 the average daily price of seamless pipe is 4769 yuan / ton, which is 19 yuan / ton higher than that of the same period last month. The profit space of the market is better than that of the previous period, but the market merchants are still pessimistic and the replenishment enthusiasm is still small. In May, the factory quotation of seamless pipe showed a stable operation trend after rising first, but the tube factory was more cautious in raising the price, most of the pipe factory rose steadily, and the transaction price increased slightly. At present, Shandong Linyi hot-rolled pipe factory 4400 yuan / ton, a cold-drawn pipe factory 4950 yuan / ton, Liaocheng thick-walled pipe factory 4350 yuan / ton.
2. Supply and demand:
On the supply side: as of May 10, the average operating rate of seamless pipe week was 50%, down 0.73% from the same period last month.
Demand: affected by the recent narrow adjustment of bulk steel prices, market shipments remained low. As of May 14, the seamless pipe market shipped an average of about 15600 tons per day, an increase of 600 tons over the same period last month.
2. Tube billet
1. Price: the market price of tube billet changed little in May, and most of them maintained stable operation. As the price of raw materials continues to rise, the profits of tube billet factories have shrunk, and some tube billet factories have lost money. As of May 14, the ex-factory price of Shandong continuous casting tube billet is about 3700 yuan / ton. North China continuous casting tube billet factory price is 3750-3800 yuan / ton, Central South continuous casting tube billet factory price is 3750 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuous casting tube billet price is 3900 yuan / ton.
2. Supply and demand
On the supply side: the planned output of Tangshan Wenfeng tube billet decreased by 40, 000 tons and Luliang Jianlong increased by 40, 000 tons, while the production of other tube billet plants was mostly normal. according to the statistics of 10 domestic key continuous casting tube billet production plants of Zhonglian Steel, the output of continuous casting tube billet was about 540000 tons in May, an increase of 70, 000 tons over April.
Demand: the inventory of raw materials in the first half of the month is about 328400 tons, an increase of 13600 tons over the same period last month. In the first half of May, the market price of seamless pipe is weak, and the market transaction is lukewarm, so the production enthusiasm of the tube factory is not great.
III. Market forecasting
1. Tube billet: judging from the current market, tube billet factory shipments are general, coupled with the lack of macro policy incentives and the weak operation of bulk steel prices, it may be difficult to have large fluctuations in tube billet prices. it is expected that the tube billet market may be in a tepid consolidation state in the second half of May. On the supply side, according to the statistics of Zhonglian Steel, the output of the 10 domestic key continuous casting tube billet production plants was about 540000 tons in May, an increase of 70, 000 tons over April. The tube billet factory said that although it had lost money recently due to the continuous upward impact of raw material prices, the production of the tube billet plant was still relatively normal, and there was no plan to stop production and maintenance at a later stage. On the demand side, the recent acceptance of orders and shipments by the pipe factory are not good, and the production enthusiasm is not very good. The operating rate of seamless pipes in the first half of May remained at 50%, down 0.73% from the same period last month. It is expected that the tube billet market may continue to maintain a weak supply and demand pattern in May, and the price shock consolidation operation is likely to be great.
2. Seamless pipe: looking forward to the seamless pipe market in the second half of May, it may be difficult to get rid of the weak supply and demand pattern, and the market price of seamless pipe may continue to be weak under the influence of weakening raw material cost support and no macro policy stimulus. In terms of cost, the price of tube billet is stable and firm in the first half of the month, and the cost support is still strong, but the price of raw material coke may be reduced in the second half of the month, and the price of tube billet may decline.
On the supply side, the seamless pipe profit margin is small, the shipment is not good, and the seamless pipe operating rate maintains low consolidation; in terms of social inventory, the average monthly inventory of seamless pipe in the first half of May is about 748900 tons, an increase of 6100 tons over the previous month; on the demand side, downstream demand continues to be depressed, according toCrashbandicootdigginitUnderstand that downstream end-users are not ideal to accept orders, real estate infrastructure construction, manufacturing industry is still unchanged, but the recent bulk steel prices are unstable, more to maintain a narrow range of shock adjustment
From this point of view, the market demand is difficult to support the firm operation of the seamless pipe market price, to sum up, the seamless pipe market is expected to have the risk of correction in the second half of May.