News summary
The crude oil market remained within a narrow range of fluctuationsperssonpokerplayer, Federal Reserve officials have an eagle attitude towards inflation. Market concerns that OPEC+ meeting may be moved onlineperssonpokerplayer, extended production cuts or pushed up oil prices to US$100/barrel, otherwise they may fall to US$75/barrel. U.S. gasoline demand is under pressure, and Russian petroleum product exports fall 14perssonpokerplayer.6%, oil prices fluctuate in the short term, and there is room for growth in the medium term.
Newsletter text
[Crude oil market continues to fluctuate, Federal Reserve officials express their views on monetary policy] Volatility in the crude oil market was limited yesterday, and prices remained within a narrow trading range. The monthly spread change is consistent with the unilateral price trend, while the gasoline cracking spread shows a volatile and weak trend. Federal Reserve officials Williams and Bostick successively expressed their views on monetary policy, and their overall attitude was more hawkish.
[OPEC+ meeting has attracted market attention, supply shortages may push oil prices up to US$100/barrel] The market focus is on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which may turn online. According to ANZ analysis, if OPEC decides to extend production cuts, it may lead to supply shortages and oil prices may be pushed up to US$100/barrel. On the contrary, if production cuts are cancelled, oil prices may fall to US$75/barrel based on fair value models. The oil market is likely to face a supply shortage in the future, and the demand for OPEC production is expected to far exceed current production.
[U.S. gasoline demand is under pressure, and inventory consumption is lower than the same period last year] Analysts pointed out that U.S. gasoline prices and profit margins are under pressure, mainly because the current inventory consumption rate is lower than the same period last year, and the supply is relatively sufficient, which weakens the market. Expectations for bullish gasoline prices. In addition, Russia's exports of seaborne petroleum products fell 14.5 percent month-on-month in Aprilperssonpokerplayer.6%, mainly affected by seasonal and unplanned overhaul of refineries and fuel export bans. In the short term, oil prices will still be dominated by shocks, but in the medium term, there is still room for growth.