Investment tips for the current issue
The overall quarterly report of A shares showed a "steady decline in price".FishbasketCharacteristics: 1) net profit growth has bottomed out, but revenue growth is still declining.FishbasketAnd the share of overseas income has reached a new high, further indicating that the domestic demand side is weak: the current round of A shares (non-financial and "three barrels of oil", excluding the Beijing Stock Exchange, unless otherwise specified below) deducts the high growth rate of non-net profit in 21Q1 (140,140).Fishbasket.5%), bottomed out in 23Q1 after 8 quarters of decline (- 11)Fishbasket.8%). Since then, the decline has narrowed and rebounded for four quarters, but 24Q1 remains negative, with non-net profit growth of-4.8 per cent and-3.4 per cent respectively in 2023 and 24Q1. This round of A-share revenue growth peak occurred in 21Q1 (44.8 per cent), as of 24Q1 has not seen an upward inflection point, has been down for 12 quarters. Revenue growth in 2023 and 24Q1 was 3.1 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively. Although revenue growth has declined, the share of overseas revenue has risen to 13.9 per cent in 2023, the highest since 2015, and the process of companies going to sea has accelerated. 2) Gross margin continues to repair, but ROE goes down again. The gross margin (TTM) of 24Q1 A shares is almost the same as in 2023, rebounding from 17.0 per cent of 23Q2 (down from 20.5 per cent of 2018Q4 and the lowest since 2010) to the current 17.3 per cent. But ROE fell again two quarters after bottoming out, falling from 7.5 per cent of 23Q4 to 7.3 per cent (the lowest since 2010 was 6.7 per cent of 20Q1). The three factors of ROE DuPont all decreased. 24Q1's asset turnover ratio (TTM) fell from 59.7 per cent of 23Q4 to 59.4 per cent of 24Q1, equity multiplier (TTM) fell from 285.2 per cent of 23Q4 to 284.2 per cent of 24Q1, and net interest rate on sales (TTM) fell from 4.4 per cent of 23Q4 to 4.3 per cent of 24Q1.
Compared with the profit situation of different sectors, the net profit growth rate of gem and Science and Technology Innovation Board has turned negative to positive, but the main board is still negative. However, the revenue growth rates of these three sectors are all in the downward trend, and the change difference of revenue growth rate of different sectors is not as obvious as that of net profit. It can be seen that Ke gem and gem are more significant in the calculation and processing of the 2023 annual report: the growth rates of non-net profits of the main board (non-financial and "three barrels of oil", excluding the Beijing Stock Exchange) and 24Q1 deductions in 2023 are-0.8% and-4.3%, respectively, and revenue growth rates are 2.8% and-0.1%, respectively. Gem (excluding Wen's shares) and 24Q1 deducted non-net profit growth rates of-13.0% and 2.2% respectively, revenue growth rate of 6.4% and 2.5% respectively. Science and Technology Innovation Board and 24Q1 deducted non-net profit growth rate of-50.4% and 5.2% respectively, revenue growth rate of 4.6% and 3.6% respectively. The main board (non-financial and "three barrels of oil", excluding the Beijing Stock Exchange) and gem (excluding Wen's shares) 24Q1 ROE (TTM) are still in the process of falling, but Science and Technology Innovation Board ROE (TTM) rebounded to 4.5 per cent of 24Q1 from 4.0 per cent in 2023.
Supply-side growth slowed down, listed companies pay more attention to dividends: 1) the inventory of industrial enterprises above the scale rebounded after bottoming out, and the A-share inventory growth rate began to turn upward compared with the same period last year. The growth rate of finished goods inventory of industrial enterprises went down twice in November 2023 and rebounded to 2.5% in March 2024. Year-on-year growth of A-share inventories entered a negative range for the first time since 23Q1, with 23Q4 falling to-4.7 per cent and marginal compensation of 24Q1, with growth rebounding 1.6 percentage points to-3.1 per cent. Although revenue growth has not yet reversed the decline, the inventory-to-sales ratio has fallen to an all-time low due to the low absolute level of inventory. 2) the year-on-year growth rate of 24Q1 A-share capital expenditure and projects under construction continued to decline, the future consolidation pressure continued to decline, and fixed assets began to turn downward compared with the same period last year. The cumulative growth rate of capital expenditure has fallen from a high of 14.0 per cent in 23Q2 for three quarters to 1.6 per cent in 24Q1, while the growth rate of projects under construction has fallen for four consecutive quarters from a peak of 19.1 per cent in 23Q1 to 8.3 per cent in 24Q1. The slowdown in the growth of projects under construction was transmitted to fixed assets, which fell from 11.5 per cent of 23Q4 to 9.6 per cent of 24Q1. 3) under the background of the slowdown in capital expenditure, listed companies pay more attention to investor returns, and all dividend indicators have improved. In 2023, the proportion of A-share dividend companies (excluding samples with negative profits) reached 88.6%, the total amount of annual dividends was about 1.3 trillion yuan, and the overall dividend ratio (dividend amount / return net profit) rose to 43.4%. Both the number of companies and the dividend ratio are the highest since 2005. Based on the market capitalization at the end of 2023, the overall dividend yield of A-shares is 1.90%, which is second only to that of 2018 since 2006 (1.93%). Therefore, from the comparison of stock and bond yields, the current dividend yield indicators show that the current A-share market index is at the bottom.
From the perspective of net cash flow in a single quarter, A-share 24Q1 cash flow inflows have slowed compared with the same period last year, and the willingness to expand has contracted, echoing the above downward trend in capital expenditure growth. Compared with the same period of last year, the operating net cash outflow of 24Q1 has expanded; the inflow of fund-raising net cash flow has decreased, reflecting the lack of willingness of enterprises to increase financing and leverage; and the range of investment net cash flow of 23Q4 and 24Q1 has narrowed compared with the same period last year. The 24Q1 cash-to-cash ratio (that is, cash received from the sale of goods and services as a proportion of operating income) continued to decline. Both revenue growth and the cash-to-income ratio, which is used to measure revenue quality, are on a downward path, with 24Q1 down 0.4 percentage points to 100.3 per cent compared with 23Q4, a historic low of 4 per cent.
Central enterprises still have advantages in profitability and profit growth, profit growth of private enterprises has improved, gross profit margins of all types of enterprises have rebounded, but revenue growth and ROE have fallen. Growth: the profit growth rate of private enterprises rebounded, and the revenue growth rate of all types of enterprises continued to decline. Profitability: the gross profit margin of central state-owned enterprises and the absolute level of ROE are at the top, and gross profit margins of all kinds of enterprises continue to rise. Its central enterprise control fee capacity is relatively stronger. Since 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of management expenses of central enterprises has entered a negative growth range, and the growth rate of sales expenses of central state-owned enterprises has also shrunk sharply. Under the background of the repair of low gross profit margin, the decline in the expense rate of central state-owned enterprises helps to keep profits resilient.
Risk hints: domestic and foreign economic recovery is not as expected; geo-risk uncertainty brings disturbance to the fundamentals of the industry; financial report data have a certain lag, which does not represent the future trend.
1. 24Q1 A shares "price stability fell", net profit growth rebounded, but revenue growth was still declining, domestic demand was weak.
We choose the cumulative growth rate of deducted non-net profit and the historical quantile of the industry's current ROE as a sign of absolute prosperity, while we choose the month-on-month changes of revenue growth related to earnings growth and cumulative growth of deducted non-net profit, profitability-related ROE and gross profit margin, and operating efficiency-related inventory turnover and accounts receivable turnover as indicators of economic improvement.
From the improvement quantity of 24Q1 financial indicators, we can see the changing trend of scene and demeanor:
1） 整体：A股非金融和“三桶油”扣非净利润增速、毛利率和存货周转率3个指标得到改善；
2） 板块：科创板、主板、创业板分别改善3个、2个、2个财务指标；
3） 宽基指数方面：科创50改善4个财务指标，沪深300、中证500、中证1000和国证2000指数均改善2个财务指标；
4） 不同企业类型上：央企和民企2个财务指标改善，地方国企仅有毛利率改善。
1.1 A股整体一季报呈现“价稳量跌”特性
总量来看，A股整体一季报呈现“价稳量跌”的特性：净利润增速见底回升但营收增速仍在下行，并且海外收入占比创新高，进一步说明了国内需求端偏弱的状况。
成长性上，本轮A股（非金融和“三桶油”，不含北交所，以下如无特殊说明均为此口径）扣非净利润增速高点出现在21 Q1（140.5%），持续了下行8个季度后于23Q1见底（-11.8%）。此后降幅收窄并持续回升4个季度，但24Q1仍为负增长，2023年和24Q1扣非净利润增速分别为-4.8%、-3.4%。本轮A股营收增速高点出现在21 Q1（44.8%），截至24 Q1仍未见向上拐点，已持续下行12个季度。2023年和24Q1营收增速分别为3.1%、0.2%。虽然营收增速下滑，但2023年海外营收占比提升至13.9%，该值是2015年以来新高，企业出海进程加快。
季节性分析：24Q1 A股营收环比增速高于历史季节性表现。营业收入24Q1环比增速为-15.9%，强于季节性2.9个百分点。考虑到往年四季度商誉减值等一次性处理，因此净利润环比增速波动性较大，在此不做分析对比。
宏观维度，23Q3以来工业企业量价双双企稳。24Q1工业企业营业收入和利润的累计同比增速震荡向上，均进入正增长区间，领先于A股上市公司收入利润趋势。宏观数据来看，工业增加值和PPI分别代表“量”和“价”的维度，整体工业部门经历了10个月的“量价齐跌”（2022.03-2023.01），此后工业增加值延续向上态势，PPI降幅缓慢收窄，工业“量价齐稳”。
价的维度，国内外商品价格分化。国际主要产油国减产延续，叠加地缘政治因素，国际原油价格上行。国内部分商品价格承压，猪价除节假日脉冲式需求支撑外继续走低，煤价在供给释放压力下24Q1下行。国内PPI累计增速自2022年四季度加速探底，2023年9月以来底部温和复苏。其中，原材料工业PPI降幅继续收窄带动生产资料PPI降幅缩小至-3.3%。终端消费需求弱复苏，生活资料PPI累计增速继续下降至24Q1的-1.0%。
量的维度，24Q1工业增加值累计增速从23Q4的4.6%上升至6.1%，各类工业部门中，制造业、公用事业和高技术产业加速恢复。总体来看，工业企业收入、利润同比增速作为月度高频数据，历史上与A股上市公司收入/利润趋势总体一致，2024年3月最新数据显示工业企业营业收入累计同比增速为2.3%，利润累计同比增速为4.3%，叠加2023年低基数，后续企业盈利有望继续回暖。
盈利能力上，A股毛利率延续修复，但ROE再次向下。24Q1 A股毛利率（TTM）几乎与23Q4持平，从23Q2的17.0%（自2018Q4的20.5%连续下滑，且为2010年以来新低）回升至当前的17.3%。A股ROE指标历史上通常滞后于净利润增速拐点1-3个季度，本轮A股ROE从21Q2高点（9.6%）连续下行8个季度至23Q2低点（7.2%）。但ROE在触底回升2个季度后再度向下，从23Q4的7.5%回落至7.3%（2010年以来的最低值是发生在20Q1的6.7%）。
ROE杜邦三因子均有所下滑。A股24Q1的资产周转率（TTM）从23Q4的59.7%下降至24Q1的59.4%。资产周转率可以反映企业经营活动强弱程度，当前资产周转率自22Q1已连续下行8个季度，对ROE修复形成拖累。权益乘数（TTM）从23Q4的285.2%下降至24Q1的284.2%，销售净利率（TTM）从23Q4的4.4%回落到24Q1的4.3%。毛利率和成本端费用率上行放缓，带动销售净利率走弱。
费用端观察到企业支出意愿同比回落。24Q1 A股财务费用同比增速再度转负至-4.6%，在利率下行的趋势下，叠加减税降费等政策加码，22Q4以来A股财务费用占营收收入比例维持在0.9%水平，处于历史低位。销售费用增速为5.5%，增速相较23Q4回落但高于去年同期23Q1的5.3%。企业降本增效策略下，管理费用同比增速延续下行趋势，24Q1下降至4.8%。总体来看，企业支出意愿处于低位，24Q1三项费用占营业收入比重为10.3%，与23Q4基本持平，较23Q3提升0.2个百分点。
1.2 板块对比：创业板和科创板净利润增速已转负为正，但三大板块营收增速均在下行中
不同板块的盈利情况对比：创业板和科创板净利润增速已转负为正，但主板仍为负增长；不过这三大板块营收增速均在下行中，且不同板块的营收增速的变化差异度并没有净利润的明显，可见科创板和创业板在2023年年报的计提处理上更为显著。主板（非金融和“三桶油”，不含北交所）2023年和24Q1扣非净利润增速分别为-0.8%和-4.3%，营收增速分别为2.8%和-0.1%。创业板（剔除温氏股份）2023年和24Q1扣非净利润增速分别为-13.0%和2.2%，营收增速分别为6.4%和2.5%。科创板2023年和24Q1扣非净利润增速分别为-50.4%和5.2%，营收增速分别为4.6%和3.6%。主板（非金融和“三桶油”，不含北交所）和创业板（剔除温氏股份）24Q1 ROE（TTM）分别为7.6%和6.5%，仍在下行中，但科创板ROE（TTM）从2023年的4.0%回升至24Q1的4.5%。
From an index point of view, in addition to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and dividend index, the profit growth rate of the main index has rebounded, and the revenue growth rate of each broad-based index generally continues to decline. Profitability, CSI 300 and CSI 500 and other market index gross margin continued to repair, ROE in addition to the Kechuang 50 index generally fell under pressure.
2. the growth rate on the supply side slows down, and listed companies pay more attention to dividends.
2.1 inventory cycle: inventory of industrial enterprises above size rebounded after bottoming out, and the year-on-year growth rate of A-share inventory began to turn upward.
The growth rate of finished goods inventory of industrial enterprises went down twice in November 2023 and rebounded to 2.5% in March 2024. The year-on-year growth rate of A-share inventory 23Q1 entered a negative range for the first time, with 23Q4 falling to-4.7 per cent, minus 24Q1 marginal compensation, and growth rebounding 1.6 percentage points to-3.1 per cent. Although revenue growth has not yet reversed the decline, the inventory-to-sales ratio has fallen to an all-time low due to the low absolute level of inventory.
2.2 capacity cycle: slower capital expenditure and more focus on investor returns
The year-on-year growth rate of 24Q1 A-share capital expenditure and projects under construction continued to decline, the future consolidation pressure continued to decline, and fixed assets began to turn downward year on year. The cumulative growth rate of capital expenditure has fallen from a high of 14.0 per cent in 23Q2 for three quarters to 1.6 per cent in 24Q1, while the growth rate of projects under construction has fallen for four consecutive quarters from a peak of 19.1 per cent in 23Q1 to 8.3 per cent in 24Q1. The slowdown in the growth of projects under construction was transmitted to fixed assets, which fell from 11.5 per cent of 23Q4 to 9.6 per cent of 24Q1.
Against the background of the slowdown in capital expenditure, listed companies pay more attention to investor returns, and all dividend indicators have improved. In 2023, the proportion of A-share dividend companies (excluding samples with negative profits) reached 88.6%, the total amount of annual dividends was about 1.3 trillion yuan, and the overall dividend ratio (dividend amount / return net profit) rose to 43.4%. Both the number of companies and the dividend ratio are the highest since 2005. Based on the market capitalization at the end of 2023, the overall dividend yield of A-shares is 1.90%, which is second only to that of 2018 since 2006 (1.93%). Therefore, from the comparison of stock and bond yields, the current dividend yield indicators show that the current A-share market index is at the bottom.
3.The cash flow of A shares slows down and the willingness to expand shrinks.
From the perspective of net cash flow in a single quarter, A-share 24Q1 cash flow inflows have slowed compared with the same period last year, and the willingness to expand has contracted, echoing the above downward trend in capital expenditure growth. Compared with the same period of last year, the operating net cash outflow of 24Q1 has expanded; the inflow of fund-raising net cash flow has decreased, reflecting the lack of willingness for financing and leverage; and the outflow range of 23Q4 and 24Q1 investment net cash flow has narrowed compared with the same period last year, and the willingness of enterprises to expand has contracted.
The A-share 24Q1 cash-to-cash ratio (that is, cash received from the sale of goods and services as a proportion of operating income) continued to decline. With the existence of the cash system of receipt and payment, the operating income items may not be able to represent the real operating situation and cash flow of the enterprise because it contains accounts receivable, accounts payable and other non-current cash items. Therefore, we use the proportion of cash received from the sale of goods to provide services to the operating income to depict the real operating condition and cash flow of the enterprise. Both 24Q1 revenue growth and the cash-to-income ratio, which is used to measure revenue quality, are on a downward path, falling 0.4 percentage points to 100.3 per cent compared with 23Q4, a historic low of 4 per cent.
4. Central enterprises still have advantages in profitability and profit growth, while private enterprises improve their profit growth.
Growth: the profit growth rate of private enterprises rebounded, and the revenue growth rate of all types of enterprises continued to decline. (1) income: excluding the caliber of banks (the same below), the cumulative revenue of 24Q1 central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises fell by 2.3,4.8 and 2.5 percentage points year-on-year to-1.5%,-4.1% and 2.9% respectively. (2) profits: the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of deducting non-net profits of 24Q1 central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises is 2.7% and-8.1% respectively, which is 1.6% and 5.2% lower than that of 23Q4 respectively; the cumulative growth rate of deducted non-net profits of 24Q1 private enterprises increases by 6.3% to-10.7%.
Profitability: the gross profit margin of central state-owned enterprises and the absolute level of ROE are at the top, and gross profit margins of all kinds of enterprises continue to rise. (1) gross profit margin: gross profit margin (TTM) of 24Q1 central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises all rebounded by 0.1 percentage point compared with 23Q4, to 17.0%, 15.1% and 16.3%, respectively. (2) ROE:24Q1 central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and private enterprises ROE (TTM) fell 0.1,0.3 and 0.3 percentage points month-on-month compared with 23Q4, recording 8.3%, 7.3% and 6.5% respectively. Its central enterprise control fee capacity is relatively stronger. Since 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of management expenses of central enterprises has entered a negative growth range, and the growth rate of sales expenses of central state-owned enterprises has also shrunk sharply. Under the background of the repair of low gross profit margin, the decline in the expense rate of central state-owned enterprises helps to keep profits resilient.
5. Risk hint
1) the economic recovery at home and abroad is not as expected.
2) the uncertainty of geo-risk brings disturbance to the fundamentals of the industry.
3) the financial report data has a certain lag, which does not represent the future trend.