Preparation for launch of Eastern Space Gravity-1 Rocket at Sea
The "Rong Piao" (Star Age-18) satellite developed by National Star Aerospace
The technological R & D scene of Yueyue Mechatronics in Hunan Province
Time and space Daoyu satellite super factory intelligent manufacturing production line this version of the picture: interviewed company this version drawing: Zhou Jingyu
Securities Times reporter Zhuo Yong Zhou Chunmei
On the evening of May 3, at China's Wenchang Space launch site, the Chang'e-6 probe, carrying the long March 5 Yao8 carrier rocket, was successfully launched into the earth-moon transfer orbit, and successfully implemented near-moon braking on May 8, successfully entering the lunar orbit.
Chang'e series of detectors, Shenzhou series of spacecraft, long March series of carrier rockets. When it comes to the aerospace industry, many people will first think of these important national instruments that serve the national strategy. However, with the accelerating pace of the construction of satellite Internet in China, the commercial space track ushered in a vigorous development opportunity. When "Aerospace", once far away from ordinary people, was labeled with the word "business", it became an industry that paid attention to efficiency, cost and profit, and stepped into the fast lane of development after the entry of private capital.
This year, commercial aerospace, as a representative of new productivity, was included in the government work report for the first time. The trillion-level market of commercial aerospace, like a vast expanse of space, is attracting more and more enterprises and capital to join the game.
Scramble for space
Commercial aerospace must be developed.
The development of commercial aerospace must be in a race against time, and everyone is thinking about how to go faster and faster, because what is in front of them is the market demand that is about to blow out, and they must quickly develop and launch products to launch more Chinese satellites into space to compete for scarce space resources that are constantly being seized by international competitors.
Data show that in 2023, a total of 223 space launches were completed worldwide, with a total of 2945 spacecraft launched. Among them, the United States carried out a total of 116 launches and deployed 2248 spacecraft, while China carried out 67 launches and deployed 221 spacecraft. It is worth noting that Elon Musk founded the SpaceX (American Space Exploration Technology Company) "Falcon" series of carrier rockets launched 96 times, sending its 1948 "star chain" satellites into space.
SpaceX is accelerating the launch of satellites into space, but the orbits and frequencies in space are scarce and exclusive. Ding Sheng, CTO of Daoyu, a commercial aerospace enterprise, told the Securities Times that the orbits available in space are limited, and the "points" with high value on the orbits are even more scarce. As a non-renewable resource, radio frequency is extremely important in the fields of communication, broadcasting, information network and so on. "according to the regulations of the International Telecommunication Union, if a satellite system wants to use a certain frequency, it needs to apply first. To put it simply, it is' first come, first served'. Whoever applies for and turns on the frequency signal first will occupy this frequency. " Ding Sheng said.
Therefore, whoever takes the lead in launching the satellite into space will occupy the "pit". Different from the traditional aerospace which is dominated by the state and mainly launches high-orbit satellites, commercial aerospace is market-oriented and mainly launches low-orbit satellite constellations. Hunan Lingyue Mechatronics is a private high-tech enterprise specializing in core key components such as satellite reaction flywheels, magnetic torquers and intelligent attitude control components. Du Jinbang, its CEO, told the Securities Times that the high-orbit large satellites represented by Beidou are tens of thousands of kilometers from the ground, and dozens of them can be netted to cover the whole world, but they have the advantages of huge cost, high launch and operation costs and extended time. On the other hand, commercial aerospace is mainly composed of low-orbit small satellites, which is basically on the orbital surface of more than 1000 kilometers. A large number of satellites are needed for networking, but the launch and operation costs are greatly reduced.
The words "more, fast, good and economical" can summarize the core demands of the construction of low-orbit satellite constellations. "only when multiple satellites are connected in a network can the service coverage and timely response ability be improved." Du Jinbang said. The reporter learned that according to their functions, commercial Leo satellites are mainly divided into three types: communication, remote sensing, and navigation enhancement, with the advantages of wide coverage, fast communication speed, and sensitive response. in recent years, it is playing a more and more important role in emergency disaster reduction, environmental monitoring, and expanding ground communication coverage.
Satellite miniaturization and low orbit has become a trend. With the acceleration of the establishment of satellite Internet in China, the demand for satellite launch will soon usher in a blowout. According to the national network constellation plan, China is expected to launch nearly 1. 5 percent into space by 2027.Shamrock7videopoker.30,000 satellites. In addition, the G60 Star chain satellite Internet project also plans to put 12000 satellites into orbit by 2030. Ding Sheng said that in the next five years, China's Leo satellite manufacturing and launch demand is expected to enter a period of explosive growth, and 30,000-40,000 Leo satellites are expected to be launched. At present, there is still a 90% shortfall in the annual production capacity of domestic microsatellites. Zhang Xinwei, an investor in Hongtai Fund, told reporters that in the face of massive demand, it is obviously not enough to rely on the strength of the "national team" alone, and it is necessary to introduce private commercial aerospace companies, which is also an important reason why innovative capital pays more attention to commercial aerospace in recent years.
Private power
Help the industry to reduce cost and increase efficiency
2014 was a landmark year for commercial aerospace. In November of that year, the State Council's guidance on innovating investment and financing mechanisms in key areas to encourage social investment was issued, explicitly encouraging private capital to participate in commercial aerospace. Since then, a large number of private commercial aerospace enterprises have emerged like bamboo shoots after a spring rain.
In Beijing Yizhuang Economic and technological Development Zone, there is a famous "Rocket Street", which gathers the head private rocket companies such as Blue Arrow Aerospace, Interstellar Glory, Tianbing Science and Technology, China Science and Technology Aerospace, Xinghe Power, Oriental Space and so on. Oriental Space is the youngest of them. It was founded in 2020, but it took only three years to develop Gravity 1, the world's largest solid carrier rocket, and is speeding up the development of the recyclable liquid carrier rocket Gravity II.
This kind of "rocket speed" benefits from the company's insistence on "design and production while testing and improvement" in the process of research and development, all systems are carried out in parallel to achieve rapid iteration of technology. According to Bu Xiangwei, co-founder of Oriental Space, Chinese private rocket companies are currently in a positionShamrock7videopokerIn the state of catching up with us and going hand in hand, the competition is very fierce, and only by speeding up the pace and constantly developing rockets with larger capacity and lower cost can we win the market initiative when a large number of satellite launch orders emerge next year or the year after next.
"Rocket Street" and Oriental Space are the epitome and typical sample of the development of private commercial aerospace companies. If the "national team" aerospace company achieves a technological breakthrough of 0 to 1 under the national system, then private commercial aerospace enterprises are working hard in the direction of 1 to 100 and then to 1000. "what we need to do is how to apply technology to the ground and how to expand the market, while the national team undertakes more important engineering research, as well as building a technology sharing platform, improving infrastructure construction, and so on. The two have their own division of labor and cooperate with each other. At the same time, they compete with each other." Bu Xiangwei said.
In order to turn technology into products, and then mass production into the market, and then expand the market scale, the logic of private commercial aerospace companies to achieve the layout of the whole chain is also different from that of "national team" enterprises. Zhang Xinwei said that traditional aerospace is dominated by scientific research institutions and state-owned enterprises, with the realization of national strategy and the completion of scientific research tasks as the starting point, often regardless of cost and low fault tolerance rate. Commercial aerospace is a market-driven behavior, the starting point of private commercial aerospace companies is to make money, the pursuit of better products, lower costs, so as to promote continuous and rapid iterative upgrading of technology and products.
How to reduce the cost? For a satellite, it is necessary to start with the spare parts that "burn money" inside. "each satellite should be equipped with at least four flywheels, three magnetic rods and other attitude control components, which alone account for 8% of the manufacturing cost of the satellite platform, so reducing costs and increasing efficiency should start here." Du Jinbang told reporters that originally the cost of a large satellite is often as high as hundreds of millions of yuan, but now the satellites manufactured by private commercial aerospace companies are expected to be controlled at 10 to 20 million yuan, reducing costs and increasing efficiency by a quantitative level. this also forces all kinds of products developed by commercial space companies to carry out quantitative cost reduction.
How to improve the efficiency and growth rate? Although China's commercial aerospace field is later developed in the United States and other developed countries, in the view of industry insiders, the advantage of backwardness is also quite obvious. "We can learn from and inherit the previous advanced experience and technological development concepts at home and abroad, combined with our team's own technological innovation and product definition, and achieved remarkable results in a relatively short period of time." Wang Lei, CEO of National Star Aerospace, which has completed 13 space missions and successfully launched 19 AI satellites and payloads, said in an interview with reporters.
To reduce the cost of the left hand and the speed of the right hand, the key lies in the flexibility and innovation of the decision-making mechanism, which is also the advantage of private commercial aerospace. "compared with the aerospace companies of the 'national team', commercial aerospace can save the complex and lengthy reporting and approval process in the feasibility verification of the technical route." Zhang Xinwei said.
Commercial profit still has a long way to go.
Commercial aerospace has now become a new track of competition among great powers, and whoever can achieve independent control of the core technology will be able to win scarce resources faster and more accurately. At present, China's core technologies and components in rockets, satellites, and the upstream and downstream links of the industrial chain, has achieved 100% localization. In addition, with the joint efforts of the upstream and downstream enterprises of the industrial chain, the domestic commercial aerospace industry has built a relatively perfect supply chain system.
However, only with sufficient scale and volume can we drive the active enterprises in all aspects of the industrial chain. "at present, there are still some weak links in the whole industrial chain in the commercial aerospace field. With the development of the head enterprises, it will be able to promote the upstream and downstream enterprises to obtain continuous orders, thus driving the large-scale development of the entire industrial chain." Wang Lei said.
"head wild goose" began to rise, leading upstream and downstream enterprises to follow up, commercial aerospace was once sought after by social capital. Around 2020, a group of commercial satellite companies announced financing, and front-line investment institutions such as Matrix Partners China, Hillhouse Venture Capital, Junlian Capital, and Deep Venture Capital entered the bureau one after another, but later experienced many rocket launch failures, policy wind changes, and so on. Investors began to think more calmly about the commercial proposition of commercial aerospace. Zhang Xinwei told reporters: "as far as commercial rockets are concerned, up to now, no company has very mature products that can steadily repeat satellite launches and truly commercialize them."
From the industry's point of view, Musk's SpaceX began to make a profit in 2023 by building a commercial aerospace industry chain, proving that this business model can work. However, different from the SpaceX-style large closed-loop, which is arranged from satellite to rocket, domestic commercial aerospace companies are mainly exploring small closed-loop business model. "take commercial rockets as an example, satellite companies provide launch orders, we complete the launch mission, the operating cost is controllable, and can generate small-scale revenue in a short period of time." Bu Xiangwei said that the current domestic capital investment is far from enough to meet the amount of capital needed in the booming and upward development phase of the industry, and there is still a big gap compared with the investment of the United States.
From birth to rapid development, commercial aerospace has only taken less than a decade, and the industry is full of expectations for further acceleration. "We call for further deregulation of binding policies, such as having more stations at the launch site so that the launch frequency can be higher in the future; in addition, further reducing the cost of the shooting range; and speeding up the coordination of satellite frequency resources. otherwise, the satellite can't be launched." Bu Xiangwei said.
Commercial aerospace is a global industry, and cooperation and competition among countries will become a trend. "We look forward to clearer policy guidelines for the international business of commercial aerospace." Wang Lei said.