Guoxin Securities released a research report sayingJackpotjillvipcasinoTo maintain China Hongqiao's (01378) "buy" rating. Suppose the average spot price of aluminum, including tax, is 19500 yuan / ton from 2024 to 2026.JackpotjillvipcasinoThe price of alumina is 3300 yuan / ton, the price of pre-baked anode is 4000 yuan / ton, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal to the factory is 900yuan / ton, and the price of hydropower including tax in Yunnan is 0.Jackpotjillvipcasino.44 yuan per degree. In the future, the fluctuation of cost items will be reduced, and the company's profitability will be more robust. With the help of this round of electrolytic aluminum high business cycle and capacity transfer opportunity, the company continues to get rid of the pressure restricting long-term development, and has a more sustainable development ability in the future.
The main points of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
The company's net profit increased by 32% in 2023.
China Hongqiao disclosed its annual results in 2023, and the company's operating income in 2023 was 133.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1% over the same period last year.Jackpotjillvipcasino.5%; the net profit returned to the mother was 11.46 billion yuan, an increase of 31.7% over the same period last year; and the net cash inflow from operating activities was 7.722 billion yuan, up 1.3% from the same period last year. The increase in profit is mainly due to the decline in the price of raw material coal and pre-baked anode. The company sold 5.748 million tons of aluminum alloy products, an increase of 275000 tons over 2022, 580000 tons of aluminum deep processing products, down 29000 tons from the same period last year, and alumina sales of 10.374 million tons, an increase of 2.076 million tons over the same period last year.
Extend the high dividend ratio:
The final dividend of HK29 cents per share in 2023, together with the interim dividend of HK34 cents per share in 2023, resulted in a cumulative dividend of HK63 cents per share in 2023, with a total cash dividend of 5.45 billion yuan and a dividend payout rate of 47.6%. The dividend payment rate of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 50.37%, 50.36% and 47.6%, respectively.
The price of energy raw materials has stabilized, and the company's performance has become more robust.
The company is the layout of the whole industry chain, and the greater risk exposure of the raw material end is coal and pre-baked anode. Excluding aluminum prices, the main reason for the sharp fluctuations in the company's performance over the past few years is the sharp fluctuations in the prices of coal and pre-baked anodes. The surge in thermal coal prices and pre-baked anode prices squeezed the company's profits in 2022, and the reversal of these factors led to a big increase in profits in 2023. Once smelting profits are improved, the company is one of the targets with the highest profitability in the industry.