Source Gangtise to invest in research
-- Manufacturing | Technology (7)--
[laser] experts said that the overall demand for laser cutting in the domestic market fell by 2030% in April, especially in the field of thick plate processing in shipyards and steel structure industry.KingbillycasinonodepositbonuscodesThe demand for laser cutting in the export market has maintained a normal growth of about 20%. At present, the price of domestic 12000 watt laser is about 10 ~ 110000 yuan, while the price of IPG laser is about 800000 yuan.
[bus] analysts said that at present, the export volume of Chinese buses in the South American market has reached more than 3000, and the export volume of Chinese buses in the South American market is expected to double to 6000,7,000 in 2027, of which the export of new energy buses will reach more than 2000. New energy buses account for about 40% of the market. In 2023, Australia purchased more than 1600 passenger cars, and China exported about 700 passenger cars to Australia, accounting for about 50% of the total. New Zealand bought 140 Chinese new energy buses in 2023 and is expected to buy about 200 in 2024.
[low-altitude tourism] analysts said that the early manned application scenario of eVTOL is likely to be low-altitude sightseeing, and the potential demand for eVTOL in domestic scenic spots is about 2450. Assuming a 20-minute sightseeing route, the single-passenger flight cost of a two-seat eVTOL is expected to be less than 500 yuan, about half of that of a helicopter flight. If eVTOL operators pursue a gross profit margin of 40 per cent and the government provides flight subsidies of 150 yuan, the price of a single seat for eVTOL flight is expected to be around 525 yuan, which is very competitive.
[passenger car] analysts said passenger car sales in the second week of May were 43.Kingbillycasinonodepositbonuscodes.30,000 vehicles, an increase of 18.7% over the same period last year, achieving the positive year-on-year growth rate since the end of the Spring Festival (only some of them showed positive year-on-year growth in March), which is in line with the landing effect of the "trade-in" policy and reflects signs of obvious recovery in the automobile market. According to the performance of specific car companies, BYD sold 71300 vehicles in the second week of May and is expected to sell 33 to 350000 vehicles in May; ideally, it sold 8000 vehicles in the second week of May, up 2600 from the previous month, with the core of the ideal L6 delivery of nearly 2800 vehicles; Xiaomi sold 1100 vehicles in the second week of May, mainly due to production capacity, and production is expected to gradually return to 2,500 million 3,000 vehicles per week in June.
[bullet train] analysts said that according to the advanced repair bidding structure of the national railway, the proportion of level 5 repairs was only 8.5% in 2022, 37% in 2023 and more than 50% in January 2024. The amount of advanced repair contract for CRRC reached 14.8 billion yuan in January 2024, exceeding the contract amount for the whole year of 2023 (14 billion yuan). The demand for some advanced repairs was temporarily shelved during the outbreak, which is expected to be fully released in 2024, and the proportion of advanced repairs is expected to rise to more than 60% for the whole of 2024. The fixed asset investment of China Railway reached 764.5 billion yuan in 2023, and it is expected that the investment will exceed 800 billion yuan in 2024.
[OPE] experts say that the normal annualized growth rate of the OPE industry is about 5%. From 2020 to 2022, the annualized growth rate of the OPE industry is 1020%, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, and terminal demand is overdrawn. The OPE industry may need at least 3 years (2023-2025) to replenish demand, while the OPE replacement cycle is usually 3-5 years. The demand side of the OPE industry is expected to be flat or decline by about 2% in 2024, and the demand side in 2025 and 2026 is better than in 2024.
[household energy storage] experts revealed that the current European inverter and household storage inventory is low. Demand growth in the European inverter and household storage market is expected to exceed 40 per cent in 2024, mainly contributed by Italy's release of a fiscal incentive for community photovoltaic energy storage systems in April 2024, with up to 40 per cent of installation costs reimbursed. Sales of 2024Q2 household savings are expected to be the strongest, but Q3 and Q4 household savings are likely to be reduced by no more than 10 per cent.
-- consumption | Medical and health care (1)--
[air conditioners] analysts said that domestic shipments of 2024Q1 air conditioners increased by 17% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to higher-than-expected terminal demand and replenishment demand in the channel. It is estimated that the domestic production of air conditioners will increase by 20%, 10%, 8% and 6% respectively from April to July 2024 compared with the same period last year. Considering the high base in the same period in 2023, the domestic sales of air conditioners exceeded expectations (the market is expected to decline compared with the same period last year).
-material | Energy (3)--
[power] experts say that over the past four years, China's annual peak load has increased by 60 million to 100 million kilowatts, while the installed capacity of reliable power has increased by only 3,000 to 5000 kilowatts, resulting in a widening gap between power supply and demand and huge pressure on guaranteed supply. It is expected that there may be a gap between supply and demand of about 40 million kilowatts in the summer of 2024.
[monoammonium phosphate] experts said that on May 15, 2024, the price of 73% monoammonium phosphate rose 600 yuan / ton to 5900 yuan / ton, mainly due to strong demand, especially industrial grade. At present, the inventory of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate has dropped from 30,000 tons to several thousand tons. After the peak season, the price of monoammonium phosphate may be stable at 5200-5300 yuan / ton.
According to experts, the current output of hot metal is 2.345 million tons per day, compared with 2.4 million tons per day in the same period in 2023. According to historical practice, hot metal production will peak in one or two weeks. As of May 9, 2024, the domestic steel inventory is 9.3 million tons, which has exceeded 10 million tons in the same period in 2023. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will weaken due to falling demand and increased supply from June to August, while the price of hot metal may also decline after reaching a high point.
-- Finance | Infrastructure (2)--
[shipping] analysts said that at present, the starting price of berth, the price of new shipbuilding is high, the price of new shipbuilding and the price of second-hand ship are both above 90% since 2000, and the prices of new shipbuilding and second-hand ship are up 10% and 16% respectively compared with the same period in 2023. At present, the aging degree of the fleet is deepening, which further leads to the decline of effective transport capacity. The old ships at the peak of the last round of shipbuilding have gradually entered the dismantling period. At present, the proportion of the number of ships to be dismantled is larger than that of new ships on hand.
[real estate] analysts said housing companies in 30 key cities added 9.3 million square meters of supply in April, down 20% from the previous month and 43% from a year earlier, the lowest since 2019. It is expected that the transaction volume of new homes will continue to fluctuate at a low level in May. On the one hand, because the base in May 2023 is not low, on the other hand, the enthusiasm of housing enterprises in pushing the market has declined in May. It is expected that the supply of 28 key cities will increase by about 7.66 million square meters in May, down 24% from the previous month and 27% from the same period last year.