News summary
South American soybean production losses are expectednewcandycrush, accelerating planting in the United States is expected to increase production. Domestic soybean meal stocks reboundnewcandycrushDemand weakens and supply and demand will be loose. Investors are advised to be cautious and reduce their positions in multiple orders to control risks.
Newsletter text
[The soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul is coming to an end]
The soybean harvest progress in the Rio Grande do Sul region of Brazil has reached 91%, and the total production loss is expected to not exceed 3 million tons, which is lower than market expectations.
[South American soybean supply has not yet been fully released]
Although the market has reached preliminary consensus on increasing soybean planting area, due to the slow progress of Argentina's soybean sales in 23/24, South American soybean supply has not yet been fully released.
[Soybean planting accelerates in the United States in the new season]
At the same time, new season soybean planting in the United States is accelerating. Thanks to good land conditions, increased production is expected to be strong.
[Domestic soybean supply level remains high]
In the domestic market, as soybeans are concentrated in Hong Kong, the supply level of oil mills remains high, and inventories continue to rise.
[The supply and demand pattern of soybean meal is expected to gradually relax]
Due to the high temperatures in most parts of the country, it is no longer feasible to increase weight at the pig breeding end. With the arrival of the pig slaughter period, the demand-side support for soybean meal will weaken, and the supply and demand pattern will gradually relax.
[CBOT soybean amplitude amplification]
Against the background that the scale of Brazilian soybean production losses has entered a redemption period, the market is paying close attention to local losses, and the amplitude of CBOT soybean prices has increased accordingly.
[Reminds the risk of high fluctuations in soybean meal]
At present, domestic soybean meal positions are still at a high level, but there is insufficient motivation for price increases. Investors need to pay attention to the high volatility risks in the soybean meal market and recommend moderately reducing positions in multiple orders and reasonably controlling positions.