Last week (May 6-May 10), after two weeks of consolidation abroad, geo-safe-haven demand boosted gold prices again as negotiations between Israel and Hamas failed to achieve the expected results, and weak US economic data supported expectations of interest rate cuts. Domestic investors continue to wait and see, capital redemption is relatively quiet.
From a market point of view, after weeks of narrow consolidation of gold in the past week (5.6-5.10), as negotiations between Israel and Hamas broke down, geopolitical safe-haven demand once again boosted gold prices upward. Spot gold prices in London rose nearly $60 that week.
The economic data released in the United States that week were relatively weak, with the number of first-time jobless claims rising to 231000, expected to be 215000, and the previous value of 209000. Due to one-off layoffs in the transportation and warehousing industries, the job market weakened, but not yet deteriorated rapidly. At the same time, pressure increased in the residential sector. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell back to 67.4 in May, below expectations of 76 and 77.2, while one-year inflation expectations jumped from 3.2% to 3.5%, the highest level since November 2023, mainly due to the recent rebound in inflation. Medium-and long-term inflation expectations rose slightly to 3.1%, reversing the previous cooling trend. This means that the Fed's monetary policy is cautious in the short term before the economy is in recession. After the Fed's interest rate meeting in May, officials began to make speeches one after another. the overall tone was hawkish. As the decline in inflation was blocked, the Fed still set a 2% target. Kashkali, the most hawkish, and Fed Governor Bowman both said that they may not need to cut interest rates this year, which will dampen market sentiment to a certain extent, but the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates again.
At a time when the United States has repeatedly drawn a red line, but Israel is still determined to launch a large-scale offensive in the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip, US President Joe Biden has sent the clearest signal to date. Biden said on the 8th local time that if the Israeli army attacks Rafah, the United States will not provide it with bombs and other weapons, according to a number of officials confirmed that the US government has decided to suspend the delivery of a batch of weapons to Israel. This is the first time in more than seven months since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict that the United States has publicly "linked" military aid to Israel with Israeli military action, but it is still a question mark whether it can change Israel's next step in Rafah.
With the release of US April CPI data this week, the risk of stagflation facing the US economy will increase in the medium to long term. As the short-term price performance of gold is affected by geo-events, its volatility is still low, if the CPI data continue to exceed expectations, gold may still face some pressure.
In terms of market developments last week, economic data in the United States was weak. The Labor Department reported last Thursday that first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose by 22000 to 2.31 million in the week ended May 4, the highest level since August last year. The preliminary consumer confidence index for May released by the University of Michigan on Friday fell to 67.4, down from 77.2 last month.
The people's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserve purchases. According to the latest data released by the people's Bank of China, the people's Bank of China's gold reserves continued to rise in April, marking the 18th consecutive month that the people's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves.888pokernodownloadThe important position in China's foreign exchange reserves.
Cease-fire talks in the Middle East broke down. An Israeli official said on May 9 that the cease-fire talks in the Gaza Strip held in the Egyptian capital Cairo broke down and the Israeli army would continue to launch attacks in the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. According to the Israeli official, the Israeli delegation left Cairo on the same day.
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