Jing Xinhua, analyst of cis-polybutadiene rubber of Zhuochuang Information
[introduction] Rubber, rubber auxiliaries, fabric cord, bead steel wire and so on are needed in tire production. Rubber is the main factor that determines the performance and processing performance of tire. Natural rubber is generally used as the main raw material in tire production.UnchainnftWith the use of styrene-butadiene rubber, cis-polybutadiene rubber and other synthetic rubber to achieve the target performance. Because the formula control of Tianjiao and cis-polybutadiene rubber in the tire production process is 5%, 8%, so the existence of alternative demand makes a close relationship between the price of Tianjiao and synthetic rubber.
The correlation among cis-polybutadiene rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber and natural rubber increased in 2024.
Since 2024, as an important raw material of tire production, the price trend of cis-polybutadiene rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber and natural rubber has returned, and the correlation has been further improved. Since 2019, the price trends of the three are basically the same, but due to different cost accounting methods and more flexible adjustment of synthetic rubber supply, there is a phased price difference among the three prices on the premise of the same trend. Since the second half of 2023, the price trends of the three are basically the same, with a correlation coefficient of 0 from 2023.UnchainnftRise near .75 to zero in 2024UnchainnftNear .95.
On the one hand, after the synthetic rubber futures are listed, Tianjiao and synthetic disk cross-variety arbitrage and other operations make the existing alternative demand spread from the lower reaches of the industry to the middle reaches of the industry, and the relationship among the three is closer. Therefore, the linkage is also stronger. On the other hand, up to now, the price of butadiene on the cost side of synthetic rubber has continued to be strong this year, the bottom support of synthetic rubber price is sufficient, and the price center of gravity is rising.UnchainnftAt the same time, under the expected game of supply and demand, the price of natural rubber is also on the high side, although there are differences in their driving logic, the price ends up in the same way, and the price gap narrows.
The influence of cost is weakened when the price is relatively high.
From the point of view of the price distribution in the past 13 years, more than 80% of the BR9000 prices are distributed between 10000 and 13000 yuan / ton. except for the influence of special factors, the highs are concentrated in the range of 13000 to 14000 yuan / ton. Thus it can be seen that the current cis-polybutadiene rubber price has been at a high level, the degree of acceptance of the purchase is greatly reduced, restricting the price to be further strongly realized.
From the perspective of historical correlation, the price change of butadiene in cost area is the most common reason for the change of price difference among the three, but there is no obvious deviation after listing. On the one hand, after cis-polybutadiene is listed on the market, as the largest downstream of butadiene, the price change of cis-polybutadiene in turn affects the price change of butadiene on the cost side, and the original transmission logic from top to bottom is weakened. On the other hand, at present, the spot price of cis-polybutadiene rubber is at a relatively high level. In the process of following the rising cost, the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber is relatively stable due to the decline of alternative demand after entering the relatively high valuation range. It basically stops at 13000-13500 yuan / ton.
It is expected that there is a possibility of phased expansion of the high correlation and persistent spreads in the second half of 2024.
Overall, the future of the three will still maintain a high correlation, but synthetic rubber is likely to maintain the discount situation. On the one hand, the seasonal fluctuation law of the three prices is basically the same, and the price rise and fall rhythm is unified; on the other hand, 2023-2024 is the process of cis-polybutadiene rubber futures from scratch, with the change of the operation mode of customers in the spot industry, the combination of market expectations is closer, which will also lead to the correlation between Tianjiao and synthetic prices. In addition, in terms of price difference, considering the different driving logic between natural rubber and synthesis, the periodic changes in supply and demand of natural rubber and the change of synthetic rubber cost will still affect the price difference among the three.
Judging from the supply and demand of the natural rubber industry, the global natural rubber production capacity is expected to further increase in 2024, and the output supply will increase, especially in emerging rubber-producing countries such as C ô te d'Ivoire, Cambodia and Myanmar. However, due to sufficient domestic spot inventory, China's natural rubber imports in 2024 may show a slight downward trend compared with the same period last year; in terms of domestic production, the overall purchase price of raw materials is at a relatively high level, and rubber farmers are more enthusiastic about tapping rubber. To provide effective protection for the growth of new rubber production, it is expected that the total supply of natural rubber in China may show a slight weakening trend in 2024. From the demand point of view, with the rise of raw material prices, the compression of production profit space of tire enterprises, and the slow recovery of the domestic market, the total demand for natural rubber in 2024 is lack of momentum to maintain a steady growth pattern. Therefore, from the perspective of industrial supply and demand, the overall situation shows a decline in supply and stable demand, and the situation of oversupply is expected to continue to converge, thus establishing the main tone of natural rubber price operation or shock upward movement.
In addition, in 2024, we still need to focus on the interference of El Ni ñ o climate on the production release of the main producing areas; in addition, in terms of industry policy, the pending wheel storage policy, the anti-dumping application filed by the United States USW against Thailand's TBR tires or the adjustment of supply diversion, as well as the impact of the new European battery law on China's new energy vehicle export.
Cost side butadiene: from the perspective of the butadiene industry, although the expected supply increment in 2024 is less than the demand increment, considering the limited improvement in terminal demand, the increase in downstream supply may lead to pressure on the price of downstream products, further pressure on the price of butadiene. According to the annual trend, considering the limited capacity release of new devices in the first half of the year, coupled with device maintenance and strong export demand, the price center of gravity in the first half of the year is on the high side. In the second half of the year, with the release of new production capacity of butadiene, the supply side supports or weakens, although the demand for new devices is also put into production, but the actual release situation also remains to be seen. Although the price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, it may not be as high as in the first half of the year.
Therefore, on the whole, the situation of oversupply of natural rubber in 2024 continues to converge, and the price is expected to fluctuate upward, while from the perspective of cis-polybutadiene rubber, there are still new devices planned to be put into production in the second half of the year, the contradiction between supply and demand continues to expand, and the cost is expected to decline, so the price is likely to recoup some of the previous increases. Therefore, it is expected that the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber may maintain the situation of discount natural rubber in the second half of 2024, and the discount range will be expanded.